Thirsty in India? When critical minerals shortages cut through

By Robin Walker, Director

On the very day that the UK’s Business and Trade Committee takes evidence on its inquiry into critical minerals a perfect demonstration of why critical mineral supply matters is going viral half way around the world.

Diet Coke loses its fizz in India as Iran war hits cans supply” reports Reuters, Indian TV headlines scream “Diet Coke Shortage in India goes viral!” “Diet Coke shortage Triggers Gen Z meltdown on social media” and even the venerable Business Standard is in on the story with “Why are Diet Coke cans unavailable and what's behind the supply crunch?”

Not that Diet Coke has appeared on many country’s list of critical minerals (yet), but a sudden shortage, caused not by any problems with the sugar free brown liquid but with disruption to supplies of flat rolled aluminium, has caught consumers by surprise.

The disruption has come from events in the Strait of Hormuz, where, though not nearly so prominent as oil or gas, hits to aluminium installations and disruption to shipping has had a significant impact on global supply for the metal. This may be good news for producers such as Rio Tinto who are unaffected but it is bad news for downstream industries and consumers such as packaging, automotive and aerospace.

India has been able to rely on flat rolled aluminium from the Middle East just as Europe, happy to offshore its carbon intensive industries to countries where energy intensive production is cheaper, is increasingly coming to do. The limitations of such an approach are being demonstrated before our eyes.

A shift in the price of an industrial metal rarely makes headlines, but when it stops the public from being able to enjoy their drink of choice, suddenly the impact is felt. The butterfly wing starting a Hurricane analogy is overused, but the knock on effects from Iran are now being felt from the car makers of Europe to the drinks consumers of India.

What better time for the UK to be considering whether its critical minerals strategy does enough to secure domestic supply? The Vision 2035 strategy published last year set ambitious targets for securing domestic supply of many materials including aluminium and battery minerals, it set targets for extraction, recycling and downstream production. The question that the Committee will be asking is, will it work and is it enough?

Recent events suggest that the imperatives are becoming more urgent and the disruptions more severe. Whilst the threat from tariffs may have informed the strategy when it was launched a year or so ago, real world disruption should now be at the forefront of minds and that could go a long way further than a missing diet coke.

When UK miners gather at the UK Mining Conference in Cornwall in June, Cardew Group will be there to draw the links between the worlds of investment, media and public affairs. We are proud to be sponsoring the Investor Forum at this year’s event and helping to connect the Critical Minerals industries in the UK to those who seek to invest in and support them. From Cornish Lithium and tin to the aluminium refining and processing plans of BACALL, delivering these critical minerals would boost our economy and security. The Committee discussion today could hardly be more timely or more relevant.