Reform UK’s six-vote margin of victory in the Runcorn & Helsby parliamentary by-election last night is the narrowest ever by-election victory. But a win is a win, and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and Opposition Leader Kemi Badenoch will be united only in their frustration this morning.

So could those six votes finally break the mould of Britain’s two-party politics?

Here’s ten things we have learnt from Thursday’s election results so far, and what happens next:

1. It’s Reform’s night: winning Labour’s 49th safest seat is a huge boost for Nigel Farage and his party, and the party cruised to victory in the new mayoralty of Greater Lincolnshire meaning that for the first time, Reform will have real executive power. Council results counted so far show Reform in the high 30s in national vote share.

2. Its all about the narrative: The Runcorn result inflicted against Labour, plus council and Mayoralty wins across the country, will certainly be enough to drive the narrative that Reform is the new power in British politics, and in Farage’s words this morning he has ‘supplanted the Conservative Party as the main opposition party’. 

3. The Government is unpopular: Not news, but the results confirm a very difficult first ten months for the Labour Government, with complaints about Winter Fuel Payments a constant doorstep refrain.  Expect lots of talk amongst Labour MPs about ‘wake-up calls’ and a need for delivery.  But optimists will cling on to the narrow Labour wins over Reform in the West of England, North Tyneside and Doncaster mayoralties, and to the swing (17%) in Runcorn being relatively unspectacular as by-elections go. 

4. Labour has a choice to make: Labour appears to be losing votes right, left and centre, but Starmer’s Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney has long seen Reform as Labour’s biggest threat and Runcorn will strengthen his hand, helped by the Green’s failure to win West of England, where they finished third behind Reform. Had they done so many more urban Labour MPs would be worried this morning. 

5. The Conservatives are in real trouble: Kemi Badenoch’s leadership started six months ago today, yet the results are likely to show that her party is still going backwards from an historically awful general election result last July. No one would envy her choice of whether to attack Reform or move towards them.  Expect more Conservative to Reform defections of activists, donor funding, councillors and even MPs.

6. Liberal Democrats will focus on the positives: Most councils are still counting but we can expect a very strong set of results for the party in local elections, tempered by the reality of poor results in the mayoralties, and Reform appearing to take their place as the natural home of the protest voter.

7. What next for Labour? Starmer remains a lucky general defending far fewer seats in this round of elections than the Conservatives. Next year’s elections are a much bigger threat to Labour, and the economic, fiscal and geopolitical context isn’t going to get any easier between now and then. Starmer may well decide to reshuffle his team to focus on delivery, and will not be short of advice on policy changes on everything from immigration to energy prices.   

8. What next for the Conservatives? Labour does at least have the opportunity (if it takes it) of governing itself out of trouble and a large majority with which to do so. It is much more difficult for the official Opposition to chart a path to victory in 2029.  Wisely the party is focusing on a policy review exercise, and not taking firm positions too early.  But retaining party unity in the meantime will be fiendishly difficult, and Robert Jenrick’s next move may prove as important as Kemi Badenoch’s. 

9. Could he do it? Nigel Farage is already leading the ‘Best PM’ ratings in some opinion polls, expect that lead to widen in the coming months.  But actually sealing the deal in 2029 remains very difficult as Reform would need 320 gains for a majority. Without one, Starmer would still have the first go at forming a Government even in the scenario of having fewer seats than Reform, and the other parties would move heaven and earth to keep Farage out of Downing Street.

10. Could Reform replace the Conservatives? This is now genuinely possible. Conservative Party membership, morale, and funds are all in a bad state, and no one in the party has a clear sense of whether to shun or encourage Reform. A pre-election anti-Labour pact will be tempting, but that could lose seats to the other parties in the South and just help Reform in the Midlands and North. The Conservatives are arguably the most successful political party in world history and have the brand, history and organisation to recover, but last night has made that path back even narrower.

If you would like to discuss what this means for your organisation do get in touch with publicaffairs@cardewgroup.com