‘I will do what is right, not what is popular' said Chancellor Rachel Reeves this morning in an unprecedented 'scene-setter speech’.  Well, she may well be right about the second bit.

Less than 24 hours earlier, Nigel Farage made what may turn out to be a similarly important speech, warning the public that his party’s previous plans for major tax cuts would have to wait until the public finances were fixed.

We get it: there is no money.  Here's 10 things we learnt from the two speeches:

Rachel Reeves, Chancellor of the Exchequer

1. Reeves and Keir Starmer have taken three lessons from their first difficult year:

• That they inherited a terrible fiscal situation

• That the £9.9 billion fiscal headroom in Budget ‘25 was far too small

• That last year’s tax raid on business was necessary, but harmed growth and kept inflation higher for longer.

2. They have decided to telegraph to the ‘breakfast audience’ a warning that the 26 November Budget will be painful; ‘we all have to contribute’ meaning that their manifesto commitment to not increase personal taxes is likely to be broken.

3. Her own fiscal rules remain sacrosanct because they can’t risk the wrath of the bond markets – and the markets have remained unmoved this morning.   

4. The three new tests for her Budget are cutting NHS waiting lists (so no change), getting debt down (see point three) and cutting the cost of living. So that means that ‘working people’, however defined, must not be worse off in net terms from the Budget tax changes. 

5. Rachel Reeves is taking a massive political gamble: no Chancellor has touched the basic rate of income tax since Denis Healey half a century ago. Expecting the May elections to be a bloodbath, they have apparently decided to gamble all on turning things round in time for the general election in 2029.

Nigel Farage, Leader of Reform UK

1. Nigel Farage is serious about replacing the Conservative Party and then winning the next general election.  He has concluded that his tax and spending plans have to add up to rebut Labour and Conservative attacks, and his speech still four years out from the election had that one aim.

2. His 2024 manifesto plans for £90 billion in tax cuts have been junked with his stated priority to fix the public finances first - a major change that suggests Reform's experience of attempting to cut local council spending has not been the walk in the park they expected.

3. Farage has seemingly won the battle with Richard Tice about whether a Reform Government would aim to grow or reduce the size of the state.  Expect to hear no more about nationalising water, and a watered-down version of the pledge to lift the child benefit gap.

4. Farage knows that to win in ‘29 he needs more than a promise to stop the boats. He needs to create a credible ‘government in waiting’ and that means confronting the same tax and spending choices plaguing Rachel Reeves and Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride.

5. Farage is also taking a huge political gamble: his success has come from his ability to appeal to right and left by criticising the political establishment. By coming up with practical solutions four years out he risks undermining his own success.