As the country swelters, British politics has hardly been any cooler, with the resignation of Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, and the near certain prospect of the newly-appointed Makerfield MP and former Manchester metro mayor, Andy Burnham, becoming Prime Minister. 

Starmer’s green legacy

A defining feature of Keir Starmer's premiership has been his commitment to accelerating the clean energy transition. In two years, that commitment has translated into tangible progress. The clean power 2030 mission, alongside reforms to planning and grid connections to speed up energy infrastructure build, has boosted investor confidence, securing £100 billion in private clean energy investment. A record-breaking renewables auction secured 9.6 GW of new capacity (the equivalent of power to 10-12m homes), while £8.3 billion has been allocated to Great British Energy to invest in clean energy projects. Public-private investment in hydrogen and carbon capture, through capital and revenue support schemes, is also intended to ensure the benefits of the transition are felt across the country.

Official statistics show record levels of renewable electricity generation alongside a continued decline in the carbon intensity of the power sector. However, questions remain about the cost of the transition and persistently high energy prices. Recent fossil fuel price volatility, driven by conflict in the Middle East, has added to these pressures.  The conflict has also reinforced the government’s central argument for the clean energy transition, that goes beyond climate goals; over the long term, greater reliance on domestically generated clean power can strengthen energy security and reduce households' exposure to volatile global fossil fuel markets.

Burnham’s local proof of concept

Where Starmer has sought to frame clean energy as a national mission led by the state, Burnham has focused on demonstrating what an integrated, devolved approach can achieve at the city-region level.

Since being elected the first Metro Mayor in 2017, Andy Burnham has demonstrated a consistent commitment to climate action. In 2019, the Greater Manchester Combined Authority (GMCA) published its Whole System Smart Energy Plan, setting out a pathway for Greater Manchester to become carbon neutral by 2038 - twelve years ahead of the UK's statutory 2050 net zero target.

In speeches, Burnham has repeatedly presented climate policy as both an industrial strategy, an opportunity to deliver regional economic growth, and a social policy that can improve people's lives by lowering bills, creating jobs, improving air quality and reducing fuel poverty.

Another defining feature of the GMCA's approach has been its emphasis on local delivery for local needs, alongside a push for greater devolution from Westminster. The 2023 Trailblazer Devolution Deal with central government allowed Greater Manchester to pilot the devolution of net zero funding, including for building retrofit, through allocated funding rather than competitive bidding from 2025 onwards, as part of the GMCA's single department-style settlement.

This emphasis on local leadership has translated into tangible delivery. To date, Greater Manchester has invested £26 million in renewable energy schemes, delivering 18 MW of an 80 MW pipeline of low-carbon generation projects across public land, buildings and car parks. It has established a framework enabling councils, NHS organisations and other public bodies to procure low-carbon technologies such as heat pumps, solar panels and battery storage; supported the development of a hydrogen electrolyser of up to 200 MW at Trafford Energy Park, expected to become the UK's largest green hydrogen production facility; become the first city region to develop smart Local Area Energy Plans; and invested more than £120 million through the Public Sector Decarbonisation Scheme to retrofit 225 public buildings.

The GMCA is now implementing its Five-Year Environment Plan for 2025–2030, which reaffirms the (admittedly challenging) ambition of reaching carbon neutrality by 2038 through integrated action across energy, transport, housing and the natural environment. As the Plan puts it: "Greater Manchester was a pioneer of the industrial revolution. We can now drive the green industrial revolution too."

From city-region to nationwide

Clearly, once Andy Burnham becomes Prime Minister, he will be expected to honour the manifesto and spending commitments on which the Starmer government was elected. Those energy commitments - the Clean Power Mission, the creation of state-run Great British Energy, and the Warm Homes Plan - sit comfortably alongside Burnham's longstanding support for climate action and social justice. Equally, the manifesto's focus on investing in the clean energy transition, creating green jobs, and revitalising Britain's industrial heartlands through clean energy projects and supply-chain manufacturing mirrors Burnham's own commitment to a modern industrial strategy.

In his Makerfield acceptance speech, Burnham argued that "the country is not working for people" and promised change. Energy costs are a major pressure on both households and businesses, and an area where people would feel the quickest and clearest benefit from government action if bills were brought down - a potential "Burnham boost". Measures such as subsidy schemes, more tailored tariffs, further efforts to decouple electricity prices from gas, and faster expansion of local energy partnerships based on the Manchester model would all fit naturally within that agenda. Energy, in other words, would be an obvious test of whether a Burnham premiership could turn a rhetoric of change into tangible gains for voters.

The challenge for any Prime Minister is to deliver change while responding to external pressures. The energy sector is no exception. Pressure is already building for the Jackdaw and Rosebank oil and gas fields to be approved for production, The Unite and the GMB unions have called for new drilling in the North Sea. Business voices such as Shevaun Haviland of the British Chambers of Commerce have argued that the clean energy transition must be managed more carefully to protect North Sea jobs and the offshore supply chain.  Yet 60% of UK citizens support net zero and climate action. By the end of July, we should know whether the next renewables auction, AR8, has attracted enough investment. Much will depend on whether the government can convert investor confidence into financeable terms, credible delivery conditions, and a supply chain capable of keeping pace.

Looming over all of this is the wider fiscal question: if defence spending needs to rise further, either in addition to the Defence Investment Plan, or because of a rewrite under a new PM, other budgets may come under renewed pressure, and energy investment may not be immune.  The early ‘clean energy’ test of a Burnham premiership would be whether his commitment to climate goals and a green industrial revolution could be translated into early, tangible progress on energy costs, jobs and investment.

Pic credit: Wikipedia Commons